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Date Headline Description #
14-Jul-2025 Soybean yield prediction in Argentina using climate data This paper was produced as part of the BIS Consultative Council for the Americas (CCA) research network and conference on "Macro-financial implications of climate change and environmental degradation", held in Bogotá on 2-3 December 2024. Request summary
11-Jul-2025 Firm-level CO2 emissions and production networks: evidence from administrative data in Chile This paper was produced as part of the BIS Consultative Council for the Americas (CCA) research network and conference on "Macro-financial implications of climate change and environmental degradation", held in Bogotá on 2-3 December 2024. Request summary
10-Jul-2025 Economic activity, inflation, and monetary policy after extreme weather events: ENSO and its economic impact on the Peruvian economy This paper was produced as part of the BIS Consultative Council for the Americas (CCA) research network and conference on "Macro-financial implications of climate change and environmental degradation", held in Bogotá on 2-3 December 2024. Request summary
8-Jul-2025 Decoding climate-related risks in sovereign bond pricing: a global perspective Sovereign yields are often the strongest reference for corporate debt markets and investment decisions in each country. Shocks impacting sovereign solvency therefore pose great concerns for the economy and financial stability. Weather disasters are especially relevant shocks because their timing is unpredictable and imply significant damage to infrastructure, economic activity and humanitarian losses. This work shows how sovereign yields across the globe react to transition risks and physical climate risks. Request summary
7-Jul-2025 Incorporating physical climate risks into banks' credit risk models The Group of Central Bank Governors and Heads of Supervision (GHOS), the oversight body of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, has agreed to prioritise further analysis on the financial risk implications of extreme weather events and tasked the Basel Committee with analysing the impact of such events on financial risks. However, a major obstacle for banks is the absence of generally accepted industry models of credit risk adjusted for physical risk factors. This raises the question of whether banks should build their own internal models to account for climate-related adjustments to the internal probability of default and loss-given-default. Request summary
20-Jun-2025 Global portfolio investments and FX derivatives We highlight the central role of foreign exchange (FX) derivatives, particularly FX swaps and forwards, in facilitating cross-border bond investments and serving as a barometer for global spillovers of financial conditions. International investors use these instruments to manage currency risk when investing in foreign bonds. We emphasise how changes in FX derivatives activity – via their link to cross-border investment flows and monetary policy spillovers – reflect broader global financial conditions. Our aim is to understand how FX hedging activity connects bond markets across advanced economies and thereby acts as a conduit for the transmission of financial shocks globally. Request summary
16-Jun-2025 Financial conditions and the macroeconomy: a two-factor view This paper develops a novel financial conditions index (FCI) for the United States to provide a transparent and interpretable measure of financial conditions and their interaction with the macroeconomy. Financial conditions reflect the cost and availability of financing faced by households and firms. As such, they are central to the transmission of monetary policy. Existing FCIs often lack transparency in their construction and fail to disentangle key dimensions of financial conditions. To address these gaps, we use a dynamic factor model to extract two latent factors that summarise financial conditions, offering a flexible and intuitive framework for understanding their macroeconomic implications. Request summary